Don't Get Upset! Too Late!
What the heck happened yesterday in college football? Top twenty five teams were falling like flies yesterday and in record numbers:
- Something funny happened to #3 Florida on the way to LSU. They lost to Auburn. Auburn. A team that lost to USF (which does not seem so bad now) and Mississippi State (which still seems bad.) Now, Florida's only hope for a national championship is to beat LSU next week and run the table. Beating LSU will not be easy and a Florida loss of 10 or more points may drop them down far enough they might never recover. Anything outside of the top 8 at this point severely cripples your chances because it creates too many cosmic tumblers.
- All of the so called experts said #4 Oklahoma was a paper tiger because they amassed so many points against second and third tier teams. Apparently they were right, except Colorado doesn't scare anyone either.
- #7 Texas, who has relied mostly on luck this year, ran out of it yesterday against Kansas State.
- #10 Rutgers, a team that many thought would benefit from some of the upsets yesterday can't get by Maryland. That was a huge win for Ralph Friedgen's program considering it's struggled the last couple of years.
- Georgia Tech, who was expected to be much better than they've been, was good yesterday knocking off #13 Clemson
- #21 Penn State was knocked off by Illinois. Illinois! This will be the most shocking news in that state until the Bears lose to the Lions later today. Wave buh bye to the top 25, Jo Pa.
- #22 Alabama looked completely lost on offense as the fell to dad gum Florida State. With two losses, both to teams they could have and should have beaten, Alabama certainly will tumble out the top 25. In fact, from this point where they are 3-2, I have them going 4-3 the rest of the way, so they most likely will not be back barring an upset of LSU.
So, who benefits from all of this who ha?
- #1 USC and #2 LSU won in somewhat close ball games. Both teams now have a clear path to a BCS championship game bid if they can run the table. Of course, given the fact that LSU has to play Florida, Kentucky, Auburn and Alabama in their next four games and try to come out on the other side without a loss, is a pretty tough task. USC should cruise through their next three games against Stanford, Arizona and Notre Dame but then get a little resistance on October 27th against Oregon. They also have Cal and Arizona State in November. One thing we know about the BCS is losing early is always better than losing late. If Florida runs the table from this point on, they still have a chance to climb back up the polls. But if USC loses in November to Cal, they probably won't have enough time to shimmy back up.
- #6 Cal knocked off #11 Oregon in a terrific ball game. Cal should now rise to maybe fourth.
- USF may crack the top ten by virtue of it's victory over #4 West Virginia.
- As lousy and as disappointing a conference as the Big Ten is this year, they may have two teams ranked in the Top 7. #8 Ohio State which has survied most of their tests this fall with flying colors and #9 Wisconsin who has been a lot luckier than good.
- #12 Boston College has been quietly wining all year long. Their victory over UMASS should vault them into the top ten as teams like Texas and Rutgers fall to the middle of the pack.
Biggest games next week?
- LSU-Florida is huge for both teams.
- Georgia-Tennessee could help derail the Bulldogs and possibly redeem the Vols (which maybe be too late after big losses to Cal and Florida).
- Oklahoma and Texas has huge BCS implications as neither team wants two losses. It's probably bigger to Oklahoma who could move up and be positioned for a BCS bid should teams like Ohio State, Wisconsin, LSU and USC lose.
- Cincinnati at Rutgers is a rebound game for the Scarlet Knights and a huge test for the suddenly revived Bearcats. By the way, if you haven't seen them, UC is a fun team to watch and nobody's little sister. Ben Mauk is a pretty good quarterback.
- USF at Florida Atlantic is a big game for USF as it is a sandwich game between West Virginia and UCF. USF will play Rutgers after UCF, so any kind of looking ahead may trip up the Bulls.
- Nebraska at Missouri is huge for both teams with Mizzou wanting to gain some distance between them and the Cornhuskers and Nebraska needed some redemption for the USC loss in the eyes of the nation's voters.
- Maryland at Georgia Tech features two teams coming off big upsets (although Maryland's was bigger). Both coaches want their teams to catch the wave in this game. A much bigger game for the Jackets than for the Terps.



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