Over the weekend, I started thinking about what coaches in the NFL may be in trouble (or, in some cases, a lot more trouble.)  So, what I've done is created a four hot seat system-with four being the hottest for the NFC coaches. 

What I have concluded, at least about the NFC is don't expect a lot of turnover.  It looks like two coaches may be out, and in both cases, they could be retained.  Even the volatile coaches are having decent years and have probably kept their jobs.

Here are my thoughts:

Four Hot Seats (Really, really hot)

• John Fox, Carolina Panthers:The Panthers aren't any good anymore and sooner or later, the team will want to "go in a different direction."  Unfortunately, it will be at the expense of their coach who will have no problem being recycled.
• Mike Nolan, San Francisco 49ers: It's been a tough year for Mike Nolan.  Between the death of his father and the unbelievable amount of injuries suffered by the Niners, it's been a nightmare.  However, the Niners are now at levels achieved BEFORE his dad showed up in the 1960's.  Somebody has to pay for it and that somebody most likely will be Nolan.

Three Hot Seats (Getting Hotter)

• Scott Linehan, St. Louis Rams: He may get one more year to turn it around, but the Rams look like they did pre-Dick Vermeil.  And that ain't pretty.
• Tom Coughlin, New York Giants: Yes, the Giants are 9-4 and going to make the playoffs.  But with Coughlin's cheery personality and up with people spirit, there's always the possibility he's on the way out.  I think he needs to get through at least one round of the playoffs to keep his job.

Two Hot Seats (Pretty Warm)

• Joe Gibbs, Washington Redskins: If anyone has the nads to fire an icon, Skins owner Daniel Snyder does.  If the Skins fail to make the playoffs, there is a good chance Gibbs may "retire" again, paving the way for Gregg Williams to take over.
• Andy Reid, Philadelphia Eagles: Everyone knows that when your family starts effecting your work, your boss gets concerned.  A lot of Reid's focus has been on family the last 16 months, which is admirable, but bad for business.  Something eventually has to give, and with all of the bad PR and the Eagles struggles on the field, reid may have to step aside to get his ducks in a row before he comes back to coaching.
• Jon Gruden, Tampa Bay Bucs: You would have thought for sure he was a goner before this season.  But that's before Michael Vick was arrested and the Saints went back into hibernation.  Chances are Tampa Bay is back in love with Chucky.

One Hot Seat (Pants Starting to Smolder)

• Lovie Smith, Chicago Bears: Last year, the Bears went to the Super Bowl.  This year, they went down the toilet, partially because of injuries and partially because Smith is one of the most inflexible men on Earth.  He's definitely safe this year, but if they tank next year, tongues will begin to wag.  Of course, he just singed an extension and the Bears hate to pay employees who aren't on campus.  One thing Lovie will do is throw a few of his coaches under the bus to send a message that change is in order.  How did that work out after you fired your defensive coordinator last year, Lovie?
  
• Mike Holmgren, Seattle Seahawks: The Walrus is having another fine year, but he gets paid a lot of money to do that.  The odds of him getting to the Super Bowl are slim, so the question is how long does Seattle want to pay a coach a gazillion dollars to get knocked out of the playoffs.   Probably not much longer.

No Hot seats (No Worries)

• Wade Phillips, Dallas Cowboys: His team most likely has home field advantage in the playoffs.  He's golden with Jerry Jones right now.
• Mike McCarthy, Green Bay Packers: His job security is tied to three words "Brett likes him."  Right now, Brett likes him a lot.
• Brad Childress, Minnesota Vikings: Thanks to Purple Jesus, the Vikings are in the hunt and Childress has turned around a slow start.  The Vikings have a real shot at the playoffs. 
  
• Sean Peyton, New Orleans Saints: This season will be his free spot on the Bingo Board.
• Rob Marinelli, Detroit Lions: He's the most successful coach Matt Millen has hired, so rest assured, he's not going anywhere, even if the Lions continue to blow leads.
• Bobby Petrino, Atlanta Falcons: He came with the expectation of coaching Michael Vick, not Joey Harrington.  So, if he leaves, it's because he wants to go back to college, not because Arthur Blank wants to fire him. 
  
• Ken Whisenhunt, Arizona Cardinals: He's only in his first year and he's got the Cards in the playoff race.  most Cardinals coaches start out that way and face abject failure from year two on.  Let's see how he bounces next year.
  

                               Tomorrow: THE AFC