I think it is absolutely hysterical that I am reading, with more than a month of action remaining, that Penn State may be an undefeated team that won't get into the BCS championship game because of the other undefeated teams ahead of them.  No one in the top three is a mortal lock at this point.

I can only surmise that these stories are being written either by Penn State Grads or AARP activists who will claim age discrimination if JoPa doesn't make it to the big game.

Reality and the law of averages says otherwise.  Look at what the top three BCS teams need to go through to get there:

• Texas: If the Longhorns can out gun Texas Tech on Saturday, they should breeze through the rest of the schedule until the Big 12 championship game.  They most likely will meet Missouri, who they crushed earlier this year.  If Mizzou decides to show up this time, they'll push the Horns a little bit, but not much.
• Alabama: The Crimson Tide has by far the toughest road to hoe of any of the top 3 teams and if they stay undefeated going into the big game, they deserve it.  After a tune up against Arkansas State Saturday night, they play LSU in Death Valley November 8th.  This will be a big game for LSU, which wants to defend their honor.  There is not a Cajun in the state of Louisiana who doesn't despise Alabama coach Nick Saban for leaving the Bayou to go to Miami.  Then, Saban comes back to the SEC as coach of Alabama. If Alabama can survive LSU, they still have their rivalry game with Auburn.  You can throw the records out the window in that game.  And, if they survive both Tiger teams, Alabama still has to win the SEC championship game against either Florida or Georgia, which most likely will be primed for the re-match.  Again, if Bama makes the national championship game, they deserve it.
• Penn State: If the Nittany Lions can defeat Indiana and Iowa, which they should, only Michigan State stands in their way.  Since the Big Ten does not have a championship game, the Nittany Lions road is arguably the easiest to the big one.

Other teams who are still very much alive:

• Florida: If the Gators can survive Georgia, it should be smooth sailing against Vandy, South Carolina, The Citadel and Florida State.  That would leave the SEC championship game against most likely Alabama standing in their way, especially if both Bama and the Gators enter with one loss. A loss by either Texas or Penn State and beating Bama in the SEC championship game put the Gators in the big one.
  
• Texas Tech: IF the Red Raiders can upset Texas on Saturday, their destiny is in their own hands, just as Texas is now.  Their big problem is even if they beat Texas, they still have Oklahoma State and Oklahoma left on the schedule.  It is unlikely they will beat all three.

Teams that Need Help:

• Oklahoma: The Sooners need Texas Tech to knock off Texas and then they need to knock off Texas Tech. Unfortunately, having already lost to Texas, this scenario might help the Longhorns get at least to the Big Twelve Championship game unless someone else can knock off Texas before then.  The odds of the Longhorns losing twice at this point are pretty slim, so OU most likely will play in a non-BCS bowl game on January 1st.  The Sooners aren't out of it, but they need a lot of cosmic tumblers to correctly line up.
  
• USC: Don't laugh.  Despite the early season loss to Oregon State, USC could easily run the table the rest of the way against Washington, Cal, Stanford, Notre Dame and UCLA.  The question here is do their opponents help edge their numbers to a point where should the teams above them falter? Maybe not now, but if two of the top three lose and Oklahoma and Florida sustain second losses, the Trojans will be right there.  Don't count them out yet.
  
• Georgia: For Georgia to play in the big one, it will take some doing.  First, they MUST beat Florida Saturday night.  Then, they need to run the table in the SEC while hoping someone (like LSU) can knock off Alabama.  Then, they need to win the rematch with the Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship game.  Then, they need Texas to lose to Texas Tech and Texas Tech to lose to either Oklahoma State or Oklahoma. Isn't always like this for Mark Richt's team?
• Oklahoma State: The Cowboys need a Texas loss and then have to beat Tech and Oklahoma to have a shot at the Big 12 Championship game.  Ranked ninth, they will also need losses from Alabama, Penn State, Florida and Georgia.
  
• Utah: The Utes have to run the table, but most importantly, most of the teams ahead of them need to lose.  Even so, given their weak schedule, it is highly unlikely they will rise high enough to make it to the big game.
• TCU: See Utah.
• Boise State: See Utah and TCU

At this point, a Texas-Penn State match up in Miami is a prohibitive favorite.  But as always, strange things happen in college football in November.  Stay tuned!