Memo To Cub Fans: Be Careful What You Wish For

Cub fans are all jazzed up now that the sale to the Ricketts family has been finalized. Cub fans seem thrilled that now that the big, bad Tribune Company is exiting the scene (probably by late October) that some how things are going to change for the little blue machine. But, will they and will they be changes for the better?
Here's some things to ponder as you throw darts at your picture of Sam Zell:
- Debt Service: Be assured that the Ricketts family had to borrow plenty of money to fund the sale. And be advised paying the money back is a big part of their bottom line. If the profitability that they project doesn't come to fruition, cuts will have to be made to balance the books.
- Organization: So, let's say the Cubs are on a tighter string because there is a certain number in mind that the owners are thinking they want to make every month. If they are structured right now in a way where they cannot make it, heads roll from the day Tom Ricketts gets the keys. Do we need so many scouts? Can we cut out the organ player and just play canned music? Can we consolidate concession items and sell less products for more money? Why are we getting so little from TV and Radio? Yadda, yadda, yadda. And each and every one of those decisions they make will affect you, the Cub fan in one way or another.
- Fire Everybody! Cub fans have soured on the combination of Jim Hendry and Lou Piniella. Cub fans want them out, but they have no idea who to replace them with. Truth is, organizations like these tend to hire young, unproven GM's who will work for less for the opportunity to prove themselves. Look at Theo Epstein and Jon Daniels for example. Young guns and very talented. So, you might be happy with Hendry getting shot, but will your next GM be a guy like Epstein or a guy like Dayton Moore? As for the field manager, few are better than Piniella. So, who would you want that's better?
- On the Field: unfortunately, the Cubs have a lot of bad contracts which will prohibit them from dumping salaries. Even if they do trade a Soriano, they will still have to eat a lot of the contract to get it to move. So trading players becomes an expense, not a cut back and there is little gain to be realized.
- The Ballpark Itself: While Cub fans should delight they play in a national landmark, that landmark is in worse shpae than when the Trib bought the Cubs in 1981. In fact, they've pumped millions of dollars into keeping that ballpark in one piece. Ricketts will also have to spend millions to maintain the park. That again is an expense that comes out of the same pool as players, organization, etc.
- Revenue: Obviously, bringing in revenue will be critical to keeping the Cubs books balanced. Look for more concerts, ticket and concession increases and seats where they should not be. Look for more merch and membership driven news letters, internet sights featuring insiders, etc.
- TV/Radio: A huge source of revenue to the team. But if someone came along and blew the Ricketts family away for radio rights, could the Cubs move from WGN? And, if it were an FM station, would it hurt the Cubs who have a national fan base and have many listening all over the state and country on clear chanel WGN 720. Listening on WGN for free is one thing, but paying to listen on the internet is another. On TV, WGN is probably still the best deal because of the national footprint. That's how Cub fans fell in love with their team in the first place. But will the Cubs haggle too much over price? And, one other item. The announcers are team employees. Would the Tom Ricketts consider any changes there?
Nobody knows what to expect from new ownership. Your previous owner is going to tell you everything is going to be fine because he needs to keep his business running until the sale. He doesn't want to hire replacements for the rats who have jumped off of the ship and in many cases, those rats will be replaced by new ownership either upon take over.
The new owner usually is silent and tells you nothing, altough people start hearing things or fragments of things in the halls and the gossip starts to fly about this and that and the other.
When the new owner takes over, there will be changes. And if someone you thought was a good employee and co-worker gets canned, the rap is "He was talented, but we feel like we have a lot of talented people." Translation: "We didn't want to deal with him."
Between the time the agreement is reached and the new guy takes over, many people leave or circulate materials of prepare for what will be the inevitable cutbacks. Everyone is being evaluated whether they realize it or not and everyone is worried that on day one they may be let go, whether they admit it or not. Just being told that you are okay isn't a gurantee. Remember, the current owner wants you to stick around until the new guy takes over to keep the flow of business consistent with customers.
Don't believe me? I worked for a radio station one that had 35 employees on Monday. On Tuesday, when the new owners took over, there were five of us left. FIVE. I got lucky (not really, I was eventually let go six months after the sale) The new owners brought their own people and almost everyone from the chief engineer to the office workers were replaced.
The Ricketts may already have an idea of who they want to bring in to run their baseball operations, marketing and financial operations. Several names you probably know will be gone.
Here's the bottom line: When the Ricketts family takes over, Cub fans may not be as happy as they had hoped to be. Then again, when are Cub fans happy?



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