Ramsey's Fearless Forecast: 2010 Chicago White Sox

Here, with much bias, is your official Chip Shots assessment of your 2010 Chicago White Sox.  Sorry it took so long to post it, but I've been busy having a life:

The Good

Rotation, Rotation, Rotation: The White Sox have one of the better starting rotations in the AL.  I don't buy the hype that it's the best, but it is in the top five with the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels and perhaps Mariners. In their division, the Sox top three starters rival anyone. We'll see if Jake Peavy can live up to the hype, but add him to Mark Buehrle, John Danks and Pink Gavin Floyd and you realize that it's built for the playoffs. If, of course, they stay healthy. Freddie Garcia, not so much and discussed later on.

Flex This: 
The lineup gives Ozzie Guillen tons of flexibility in mixing and matching his lineup to any occasion. 2010 roster additions Mark Kotsay, Andruw Jones and Mark Teahen are mufti-positional players, giving Ozzie a lot of choices in case of injury, illness or matchups.  Omar Vizquel is one of the finest fielding infielders ever and Jayson Nix brings something to the table as well.  This could be one of the deeper rosters Ozzie Guillen has ever had among position players.

Bridge to Bobby: With the addition of former Mariiners closer J.J. Putz, the Sox could, in theory, slam the door on opponents as early as the seventh inning.  Putz and Matt Thornton could be the Cliff Politte and Neal Cotts of 2010.

Super Speed Demons
:  The White Sox are no longer speed challenged.  With additions to the roster like Juan Pierre and  Andruw Jones and the subtraction of the lumbering Jim Thome and Jermaine Dye, the Sox will be able to put a lot of pressure on opposing defenses.  The sight of a Sox player going from first to third on a single was rare in 2009, but should be the norm in 2010. The stolen base count should be up soon. And Pierre and Vizquel bring something to the South Side not seen since maybe the days of Tad Iguchi: The ability to bunt. .

Catch a rising to star:  While A.J. Pierzynski still struggles throwing people out, his ability to handle a highly touted pitching staff is without question. With this possibly being a walk year, A.J. will go all out to make himself attractive to possible suitors or perhaps the Sox brass. Ramon Castro is an able backup, although he most likely will start the season on the DL. .

Come to Work Ripped::The Sox all come to camp in great physical condition.  Included on that list are Bobby Jenks, who left thirty pounds in Idaho along with his six packs and Andruw Jones, who reported in shape for the first time since he was a Brave a few years ago.  

Happy and Healthy: The Sox are healthy, save for Ramon Casto's heal and the lingering effects of Paul Konerko's thumb injury following training camp.  The fact that Carlos Quentin is included in this paragraph, bodes well for the Sox.

The Kid Can Play: He was the most talked about player in camp last year and his play last year inspired the Sox.  Now, in his first full year, can Gordon Beckham handle another new position and contribute to the Sox cause offensively.  Not yes, but hell yes.

Lay Me Down: This could be a Sox team that lays down more successful bunts than any Sox team since the Go-Go Sox of 1959.  That will be key if they want to play "Ozzieball."

Last Chance Saloon: This most likely will bethe last year for veterans Pierzynski and Paul Konerko in a White Sox uniform.  Boith would like to remain with the team beyond this year. Winning a championship or even a deep playoff run might be enough to get the Sox to re-sign them, although I think Konerko is done after this year.

The Second Time Around: The Sox will have several players who want to make up for poor years last year.  The two most prominent would be Alex Rios and Scott Linebrink.  If both of them come through and play like the Sox think they can, this team will have played pretty well.  Likewise, castoffs Juan Pierre, Anduw Jones, J.J. Putz and Mark Kotsay also want to prove Kenny Williams faith in them.

Backup Plan: The Sox are beginning to build a deeper farm system where the cavalry can rise to the occasion should there be injuries. Daniel Hudson can step in as a starter, and depending on how he does at Charlotte, former Astros and Indians starter Scott Elerton can too.  Alejandro De Aza had a great camp and youngster Jordan Danks also impressed.  Greg Aquino can fill Sergio Santos roster slot should he not pan out.

Well Armed: Andruw Jones has a cannon.  Alex Rios and Carlos Quentin are above average.  This will help the Sox score some more outfield put outs. 

Deadwood: The Sox did a nice job of getting rid of some players who really weren't helping.  Josh Fields is a prime example.  They for better or for worse cut ties with some veterans who were gumming up the basepaths in Jim Thome and Jermaine Dye.  Gone prior to the winter were Brian Anderson and the lead gloved Wilson Bettemit.

The Bad

Infield Out: The infield defense, with the exception of Paul Konerko could be the shakiest it's been in years.  Gordon Beckham is learning second on the fly, Alexi Ramirez likes to daydream and Mark Teahen is a slight upgrade over Beckham at third.  The only time the Sox infield might be considered air tight is with Omar Vizquel at short and Jayson Nix at second, but if they are in at the same time, it's either a laugher, a blow out or there are serious injury issues.

Noodling: Juan Pierre throws like a girl with a bad shoulder.  There, I said it.  His spaghetti arm in left will allow teams like the Twins and Angels to run amok.  It's even worse if he plays center.

Long Ball Gone
:  While the Sox will be faster, they will also hit less home runs.  Outside of Konerko and Quentin, no one in the Sox lineup is capable of hitting more than say 20 home runs.  This will guarantee that the Sox will have to keep games close.  Those eight run comebacks against Cleveland are probably a thing of the past.

Time is Not on my Side: The Sox core is still older and with it comes a lot of baggage.  Konerko is 34.  A.J. is 33.  Omar Vizquel is 107. More veterans mean more nagging injuries that take longer to heal.

It Takes A Village: While not totally a bad thing, the Sox will be DHing by committee this year.  If they can get productive years out of Andruw Jones and Mark Kotsay and use it to give Paulie and Q a day off once in a while, this will work fine.  But if the DH's can't hit, the crap will hit the fan faster than you can say "Buzz Lightyear."

Back to Reality: It's up to Danks and Floyd to continue their progress from last year.  No one is worried about Danks, but the possibility of Floyd, who the Phillies gave up on because of his lack of fortitude, going back to 2007 is a real possibility.  As Danks and Floyd go, so go the Sox.

Ready, Freddie?: Freddie garcia got lit up like Times Square at the end of spring training.  Is Freddie really the best option as the fifth starter or is this a clear act of nepotism on the part of his Uncle by marriage, Ozzie Guillen?

The Ugly

Hole the Line: Scott Linebrink absolutely has to pitch well this season. He's a key sixth inning cog that sets the table for Thronton, Pena, Putz and Jenks.  The Sox need him to be his 2006 self, not the punching bag who has worn a Sox uni the last couple of years.

Steal Away: 
As much as we all love A.J., everyone knows he couldn't throw out my mother (and she's 75 and requires a walker.) The Twins and Angels will load up on the Sox stealing at will. Ramon Castro is above average, but he's on the DL right now and only catches once in a blue moon.

Time Bomb: No one knows where or when, but anyone that is an experienced bettor already has money down Carlos Quentin will get hurt at some critical point during the season.  If that happens, the dominoes could fall quickly and bring down the house of cards. Jake Peavy is also a concern.  If the Sox can go through the whole year without a major injury or one of the big boys going on the DL, Dr. Herm should be a nominee for the Nobel Prize for medicine.

Dog Days Dogs: The Sox have not fared well in August under Ozzie Guillen.  This season they need to if they want to keep up with the Twinkies and Tigers.

Can't We All Just Get Along?:
Twittergate pointed out the fragile relationship between Ozzie Guillen and GM Kenny Williams.  Kenny has bent over backwards to provide Ozzie with the style of club he wants, even if Kenny doesn't agree.  If the Sox come out of the gate slow or have a year like 2007, watch for this relationship to head south in a hurry.

Final Thoughts

I do not believe for one millisecond that this team is as good or as bad as some of the predictors (human and computer) say it is. There is more speed this year, the defense is overall improved and the starting pitching is competitive with the elite teams in the league.  The bullpen, on paper looks good.

The bottom line is getting the best years out of people.  The Sox will need someone to be hot at all times because they can't count on Jim Thome or Jermaine Dye to come through with a big three run home run to save them. They also need the bullpen to do their jobs and the starters to average six innings or so per start. 

The Sox are fortunate to be in a division where all of the contenders have a fatal flaw.  For the Twinkies, it's their bullpen.  For the Tigers, it's their starting pitching.  If the Sox can exploit these weaknesses and dominate their division, they have a good chance of winning it.  Sure, it sounds simple and perhaps even reeks of an observation from Captain Obvious, but if you look back at why the 80's Bears won every year from 1984-1990, it was that they dominated their division.  The Royals, Indians, Twinkies and Tigers give you 72 opportunities for wins.  Beat each of them 12 out of 18 and you suddenly find yourself with half the total you need to make the playoffs.  I'm just saying.

I think the Sox could also take advantage of interleague play this year.  If the speed factor holds up, they match up well against the Cubs, Pirates and Nationals.

I see them fulfilling most people's expectations in 2010.  Do I think they can win the division?  Yes.  Do I favor them to win the division?  No.  They still have to prove they can beat Minnesota.  Hopefully, they get off to a good start, build some confidence and hang on until the end.  It worked in 2005.

One thing is for sure.  I'm much more optimistic as a Sox fan than I would be if my favorite team was the Royals, Indians, Pirates, Nationals Mets or Cubs.

Quote of the day:  "I got up this morning and said, 'How many people want to be Ozzie Guillen right now?' " Guillen said. "I'm lucky enough to be here and have the job I have."

 

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