Game Of The Century Redux

Usually I leave the football analysis up to Butkus D. Dogg, but he agreed that I should give my own take on tonight's alleged national championship game.
I say alleged because I can't help but think how much more interesting this would be with Oklahoma State meeting LSU. Not that I don't like or respect Alabama, but we've seen this dance before. And with no playoff or "plus one" to settle the issue, even a Crimson Tide victory tonight in New Orleans does not guarantee them a clear national title.
Since this, as all big games are, has been sliced, diced, and analyzed to death, I'm going to keep this pretty short.
The x-factors in this game in my mind are LSU punter Brad Wing and Alabama running back Eddie Lacy.
Wing is an unbelievable punter. His punting in the first matchup between these two teams put Alabama in several deep holes. One punt in particular was misjudged by return man Marquis Maze and wound up rolling for 73 yards. Although there is no wind in the Superdome, there are lights on the ceiling, and high, lofty punts by Wing could lead to an Alabama turnover. Alabama is best served by a short field and it is Wing's job not to allow them one.
Lacy was just recovering from turf toe the last time these two teams met. With 44 days since the Tide's last game, he most likely will be 100%. Lacy is key for two reasons. The first is to preserve Trent Richardson for the second half. The second is Lacy is a load to bring down and can wear down a defense. He also is a great change of pace back and can spell Richardson while continuing to pound an opponent. I think a healthy Lacy could be a difference in this game for the Tide.
In the end, it comes down to the quaterbacks. LSU has two good ones in Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee while Alabama has an able game manager in A.J. McCarron. I think Jefferson is the key to LSU being successful offensively. I keep waiting for McCarron to show me something, yet he never does. Don't get me wrong, he's okay, but he's not the kind of quarterback that can take over a game like Jefferson. If Alabama does what it did against Texas in the 2010 championship game and knock Jefferson out early, they will still have to contend with Lee.
As much as this is going to get me in trouble with my Alabama native wife, I'm thinking LSU and maybe by ten or more.
One thing about these types of games. After over a month of inactivity, it's hard to judge how these teams will react at game speed. Players who were sucking fumes in November or playing with nagging injuries now have had time to heal and that does change the complexion of the game substantially.
I only wish there was a way to see how Stanford and Oklahoma State would stand up against these two teams. That would make it interesting.



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